This java applet estimates the number of slumps (or streaks) that a
batter will have during his career. A slump is defined as a series of A at
bats in which the batter gets H or fewer hits. All overlapping slumps are
counted as a single slump.
When you hit the “Simulate” button, the applet will generate
hit-out profile for several careers. Each career will have exactly the number
of hits and at bats that you specify, randomly distributed. The program tracks
the number of separate slumps for each simulated career. It then reports the
average of these, as well as a table of how many times each slump count occured.
The “show detail” check box allows you to see each hit-out
profile. Warning: you will need to copy and paste this into a text file to
make any sense of it, unless career at bats is less than 100 or so.
The “slump/streak” radio buttons let you choose whether you
want to count slumps or streaks. A streak occurs when the batter has at
least H hits in A at bats, with overlaps treated the same as for slumps. This
is not the same as a consecutive game streak, and I reallly should call it
something else. But I couldn't think of a noun that is the opposite of slump.
Note that the program has other uses. For example, to estimate the
number of 2-for-10 slumps a 100-game winning team will have, set the career
to 100 for 162 and the slump to 2 for 10. You should find that such a team
will average about .45 slumps per season, and that 60% of the time they will
have no such slump.
The default settings are for estimating the number of 2-for-31 slumps
that Roy Campanella would be expected to have had.
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