This java applet computes the chance that a team will achieve a certain winning streak at some point during the season. The model assumes that the number of wins and losses are distributed randomly throughout the season. In other words, that any order of wins and losses is as likely as any other.

You can specify the following:

- “Number of Wins”— (W) the number of games the team will win during the season.
- “Number of Losses”— (L) the number of games the team will lose during the season

The computation method just counts all possible sequences of W wins and L losses in which a string of S (or more) consecutive wins occurs. This is listed as “ways with streak”. This is divided by the total number of possible sequences of W wins and L losses, regardless of streaks. This is listed as “total ways”. The probability is the former divided by the latter.

The formula used was derived by Robert Israel at the University of British Columbia.

Back to Bob’s main Baseball page.