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This java applet computes the chance that a team will achieve a certain winning streak at some point during the season. The model assumes that the number of wins and losses are distributed randomly throughout the season. In other words, that any order of wins and losses is as likely as any other.

You can specify the following: When you hit the “Table” button, the applet will compute a table of the chance of a given streak being the longest during the season. When the computation is complete, you may wish to scroll the applet window up and down to view the entire table. You can also select the text and copy it into other applications.

The computation method just counts all possible sequences of W wins and L losses in which a string of S (or more) consecutive wins occurs. This is listed as “ways with streak”. This is divided by the total number of possible sequences of W wins and L losses, regardless of streaks. This is listed as “total ways”. The probability is the former divided by the latter.

The formula used was derived by Robert Israel at the University of British Columbia.

Back to Bob’s main Baseball page.